Weather – Dorian 8/27 Updates
Dorian in my nutshell. Looking at Tropical Storm conditions in the Caribbean the next couple days. Most all models show main development chances after the DR/PR crossover. New center reformed north today playing trickery on models. Now PR might take the brunt Wed. How it survives over PR and DR is the key. If a core still exists definite shot to intensify in the Atlantic. Yes could completely die… but almost no models show this chance. Dorian gets pulled more northward and through parts of the Bahamas Fri/Sat with a turn westward. Models fanning out from SFL to even north of Florida now. More time over the hot Gulf and favorable conditions could ramp this up. This is NOT in the official NHC forecast as of now. But my gut says yes. Latest ensembles trending maybe a turn northward close to impact. This will allow more strengthening over the Gulf stream and put GA/SC/NC in play. This has my attention. If it hits the peninsula of Florida could escape into the Gulf. Saturday looks like the best day for Florida. Saturday night into Sunday things go downhill. If does trend north most of the weather is to the north and east so most of the peninsula would be dry with a later landfall into Sun/Mon even up north. Lots to watch. But making sense. Nothing to worry about in the long-term right now. Just nothing solid yet. Just be prepared for any of these scenarios. Could get real hectic over the weekend if Dorian is forecast to strengthen.